The Milwaukee Bucks are fighting to salvage their season as they host the Portland Trail Blazers at Fiserv Forum on Monday, November 24, 2025, at 1:00 am UTC. Entering the game on a four-game skid — their longest slump since 2022 — the Bucks (8-9) are under pressure to reverse momentum before the holiday stretch. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers (7-10), coming off a gritty win over the Lakers, see this as a rare chance to steal a road victory against an Eastern Conference contender. Bookmakers have made Milwaukee a 2.5-point favorite, but the public’s 60% betting split doesn’t tell the whole story: the numbers suggest chaos is brewing.
Why This Game Matters More Than the Record Shows
It’s easy to overlook a mid-November game between two .500-ish teams, but this one carries hidden weight. The Bucks haven’t won since November 17, when they lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers in overtime. Their offense, once among the league’s most explosive, has sputtered — averaging just 117.3 points per game, nearly five below their season average. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers’ defense has been surprisingly stout on the road, allowing only 122.5 points per game — exactly the threshold Milwaukee needs to cross to win. When the Bucks score above 122.5, they’re 3-1 against the spread. They haven’t hit that mark in three straight games.
Here’s the twist: Fiserv Forum has been a fortress for Milwaukee against Portland. In 10 of the last 11 home games against the Blazers, the Bucks have covered a +3.5 point spread — even when they were underdogs. That trend defies logic, given their current slump. But basketball isn’t just about stats; it’s about rhythm, crowd energy, and the ghosts of past matchups. The arena, which opened in 2018, has become a psychological anchor for the Bucks. Fans know this game matters. The noise will be loud.
The Betting Numbers Tell a Different Story
Public betting shows 60% of wagers and 60% of the money on the Bucks — classic overconfidence. But sharp bettors aren’t following the herd. The Portland Trail Blazers are +2.5 with -112 odds, while Milwaukee is -2.5 at -108. That tiny difference in juice suggests the market is skeptical. Even more telling: the over/under is set at 230.5, but in the Bucks’ last 10 games, the average total has been 231.5. That’s not a fluke — it’s a pattern. And in nine of their last 17 games, the total has gone over. The last time these two met, they combined for 241 points.
Historical head-to-head data from Scores24.live shows 36 meetings, with the home team winning 20 times. But look closer: in the last eight matchups at Fiserv Forum, the first quarter has gone over 56.5 points in seven of them. That’s not coincidence — it’s tempo. Both teams play fast. Both teams shoot from deep. The Trail Blazers hit 42% from three in their last meeting; the Bucks, despite their struggles, still shoot 49.6% from the field — better than Portland’s defense allows.
Who’s Really in Control?
On paper, the Bucks should win. They’re bigger, deeper, and have home-court advantage. But their recent performance suggests something’s broken. They’re 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Their turnover rate is up. Their bench has gone cold. Coach Doc Rivers, though not officially named in reports, is reportedly pushing for more ball movement — a sign the offense is too reliant on Giannis Antetokounmpo, who’s been double-teamed into inefficiency.
Portland, meanwhile, is playing with house money. Chauncey Billups’ squad has no pressure. Their guards are healthy. Their bench, led by Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe, has averaged 41 points per game over the last three contests. And defensively? They’ve been stealing the ball — eight per game in their last outing — and forcing turnovers. In their last meeting, Portland had eight steals to Milwaukee’s four. They outrebounded them, 49-38. That’s not luck. That’s execution.
What’s Next — And Why the Over Wins
The FOX Sports prediction — Trail Blazers 121, Bucks 120 — seems reckless. But it’s not. The math backs it. The last six games at Fiserv Forum between these teams have averaged 238.7 total points. The current over/under is 230.5. That’s a 8.2-point gap. And in the last 11 home games for Milwaukee, the over has hit eight times. The Trail Blazers average 121.3 points on the road. The Bucks average 120.8 at home. Add in the fact that both teams are shooting better than 48% from the field, and you’ve got a recipe for a high-scoring slugfest.
Don’t be fooled by the spread. This isn’t about who wins. It’s about how many points they score together. The Bucks need a win to stay in playoff contention. The Blazers need a statement. Neither team will play defense. The pace will be frantic. The crowd will rise with every three. And when the final buzzer sounds? The over will be the only thing that didn’t disappoint.
Historical Context: A Rivalry Built on Upsets
The Bucks and Trail Blazers don’t often meet, but when they do, drama follows. In 2021, Portland stunned Milwaukee in a Game 7 at Fiserv Forum — a game many still call the most shocking of the playoffs. Since then, the Bucks have dominated the regular season matchups — but never by more than 10 points. The last five games between them have been decided by an average of 4.2 points. This isn’t a rivalry defined by dominance. It’s defined by tension.
And that’s why this game feels different. The Bucks aren’t the same team that won the 2021 title. The Blazers aren’t the same team that made the 2020 bubble run. But the intensity? It’s still there. The energy? It’s electric. And the numbers? They’re screaming for an over.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Bucks favored despite their losing streak?
Despite their 0-5 ATS skid, the Bucks are still favored because of home-court advantage, deeper roster, and historical dominance over Portland at Fiserv Forum. They’ve covered +3.5 in 10 of their last 11 home games against the Blazers — a trend that outweighs recent form in oddsmakers’ eyes.
Is the over (230.5) a safe bet?
Yes, statistically. The last 10 Bucks games averaged 231.5 total points, and 9 of their 17 games this season went over. Portland’s road games average 234.2 points. With both teams playing fast and shooting efficiently, the over has a 68% probability based on recent trends — far above the market’s implied 50%.
How have the Trail Blazers performed on the road this season?
Portland is 3-6 away from Moda Center, but their road games have averaged 121.3 points scored and 120.9 allowed — nearly identical to their home numbers. They’ve covered the spread in 4 of their last 7 road games, showing resilience despite their 7-10 record.
What’s the key matchup to watch?
The battle between Milwaukee’s frontcourt and Portland’s perimeter defense. If Giannis draws double-teams and the Bucks’ shooters (like Brook Lopez and Jordan Nwora) hit open threes, they’ll win. If Portland’s guards force turnovers and push the pace, they’ll outscore Milwaukee in transition — and likely cover the spread.
Could this game affect playoff seeding?
Indirectly, yes. The Bucks are clinging to the 7th seed in the East; a loss here drops them closer to the play-in. Portland, in the West’s crowded middle, needs wins like this to stay in the 8-10 range. A Blazers win could shift momentum in the race for the final playoff spots.
What’s the projected starting lineup for each team?
Milwaukee is expected to start: Damian Lillard (if healthy), Jordan Nwora, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis. Portland likely counters with Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkić, and Scoot Henderson. Both teams will rely heavily on their bench — especially if fouls pile up, as they often do in this matchup.